[Unmasking the Tariff War] History Doesn't Repeat, but Human Nature Does

From Ballots to Stock Charts: Why Our Choices Echo Each Other

Mark Twain, born Samuel Langhorne Clemens, was one of the most influential American writers and social critics of the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Known for his sharp wit and keen observations on human nature, he is often credited with the phrase, “History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Though direct attribution remains uncertain, the sentiment of the quote aligns closely with Twain’s worldview. It reminds us that while historical events differ in form, their essence—the human behaviors behind them—often echoes across time.

Politics and investing may seem like two distinct realms, but both are arenas shaped by greed, fear, hope, and illusion. We believe we are making independent decisions—choosing a political candidate or picking a stock—when in truth, those choices are often steered by collective sentiment, media narratives, and deep-seated cognitive biases. These are not just decisions of data, but decisions of the heart and mind, wrapped in patterns of human behavior.

Global Flashpoints: The Stage for Human Nature Never Closes

The Tariff War and the Reshaping of Global Supply Chains

In the past decade, the world witnessed a modern conflict waged not with weapons but with tariffs. The tariff war began between two major economies, driven by long-standing trade imbalances and fears of technological dominance. Accusations of unfair trade practices and industrial infiltration escalated into multiple rounds of retaliatory tariffs. From agriculture to semiconductors, few sectors were spared as economic barriers expanded rapidly like falling dominoes.

What started as a strategic pressure tactic quickly devolved into a stage for political posturing and nationalist fervor. Caught in the crossfire were corporations and investors, struggling with unpredictable risks and rising costs. Multinational companies, sensing instability, began diversifying supply chains—relocating manufacturing to “neutral” or lower-risk regions.

This shift reshaped global production hubs, simultaneously disrupting export-reliant economies while offering opportunities to others. As Asia and Eastern Europe adapted, the ripple effects transformed trade maps worldwide.

Markets trembled with each diplomatic press release or updated tariff list. Analysts tried to read political moods like earnings reports. This wasn't just an economic battle—it was psychological warfare. Behind the drama lay humanity’s timeless anxieties: fear of decline, desire for control, and the urge to assert dominance over an unpredictable system.

History offers precedents. The Anglo-Dutch trade wars, 19th-century tariff protectionism, and early 20th-century economic nationalism all began with the same rallying cry: defend national interest. Each ultimately fractured the global economic order. The tariff war rhymed with these past struggles—not in detail, but in the human instincts they unleashed.

Western Philosophers: When Freedom Becomes Illusion

Why bring in Western philosophy? Because since the Enlightenment, Western thought has profoundly shaped modern institutions like democracy and capitalism. These systems may be grounded in logic, but their longevity is ultimately governed by human behavior.

Freedom is foundational—but when untempered by discipline or wisdom, it can descend into chaos. Politics becomes a battlefield of ideologies, and the market devolves into emotional turbulence. Philosophers help us ask: When idealism meets reality, where does it go wrong?

• Plato, in The Republic, warned that “democracy ultimately leads to mob rule, and then to tyranny.” His critique applies not only to politics but to the investor masses driven by herd mentality—when too much access and too little restraint leads to extremes.
  

• Hegel observed, “The only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history.” This rings true every time investors say, “This time is different,” ignoring past crises fueled by overconfidence and wishful thinking.
  

• Adam Smith, in The Wealth of Nations, celebrated the invisible hand of the free market—but in The Theory of Moral Sentiments, he acknowledged that empathy and irrational emotion also drive human decisions. Forgetting this duality blinds us to how easily emotion can destabilize systems.
  

Whether in politics or finance, Western thinkers show us that the scaffolding of freedom and reason stands only as long as human behavior allows it.

Eastern Philosophers: All Phenomena Begin in the Mind

Why look to Eastern thought? Because it provides an inner lens—a focus not on systems, but on self-mastery. While Western philosophy builds institutions, Eastern wisdom cultivates balance between the internal and external. Politics and investing are not just structural challenges—they are reflections of the inner world.

“All phenomena arise from the mind” (萬象皆心造) means that every crisis, every bubble, every revolution starts with human perception. To change the world, we must first examine the lens through which we see it.

• Lu Xiangshan asserted, “The mind is principle” (心即理也). Governance and markets, then, are only as sound as the self-awareness and virtue of the people participating in them. Emotional control and ethical discipline are prerequisites for stable leadership and investment.
  

• Laozi, in the Dao De Jing, wrote: “Governing a large state is like cooking a small fish.” In other words, subtlety and patience are essential. Excessive interference ruins the dish—just as overregulation or hyperactivity ruins markets. In both realms, “slow is smooth, and smooth is fast.”
  

• The I Ching teaches: “Crisis leads to change; change enables flow; flow leads to longevity.” Markets and politics must evolve, not stagnate. Rigidity invites collapse. Flexibility, informed by timing and humility, leads to resilience.
  

• Mencius said, “The people are more important than the state.” In modern terms, investor confidence matters more than policy. Without trust, no structure can stand.

Eastern wisdom also urges caution: Sun Tzu wrote, “The best victories are won before the battle is fought.” In the context of the tariff war, this means strategy must precede action. Rash responses, driven by ego or public opinion, may satisfy in the short term but weaken positions in the long run.

The Core Truth: Human Nature Is the Common Denominator

We think we’re making rational decisions—choosing a candidate, timing a trade. But more often, we’re re-enacting internal scripts: chasing highs, avoiding fear, following crowds. Our minds seek patterns even when none exist.

Markets and elections cycle not because institutions fail, but because human behavior does. Overconfidence leads to bubbles. Panic causes crashes. Echo chambers deepen polarization. Behind every chart and campaign is a loop of emotional overreaction.

The smarter question isn’t “Which party or stock will win?” but “Am I repeating the same emotional decision I made last time?” Self-awareness, not strategy, is the true edge.

History doesn't repeat—but it always rhymes. And it rhymes in the key of human nature.

The Core Truth: Human Nature Is the Common Denominator

We think we’re making rational decisions—choosing a candidate, timing a trade. But more often, we’re re-enacting internal scripts: chasing highs, avoiding fear, following crowds. Our minds seek patterns even when none exist.

Markets and elections cycle not because institutions fail, but because human behavior does. Overconfidence leads to bubbles. Panic causes crashes. Echo chambers deepen polarization. Behind every chart and campaign is a loop of emotional overreaction.

The smarter question isn’t “Which party or stock will win?” but “Am I repeating the same emotional decision I made last time?” Self-awareness, not strategy.