The ONO Strategic Triangle: Why an Unofficial Alliance Is AI's Most Powerful Engine

In the world of technology and investing, we gravitate toward clear alliances and official statements. Lavish signing ceremonies and joint press releases seem to signify the true joining of forces. But history repeatedly shows us that the most profound, market-shaping alliances are often not the ones signed on paper, but the "de facto alliances" forged by mutual interest, indispensable dependency, and a shared bet on the future.

Today, a textbook example of such an alliance is driving the global AI industry forward at an unprecedented pace. It has no official name and no joint logo, yet its influence is inescapable. We call it the ONO Strategic Triangle: OpenAI, NVIDIA, and Oracle.

These three companies occupy the most critical nodes of the AI value chain, forming a stunningly effective positive feedback loop. This cycle is so powerful that the market has begun to describe it with a near-mythical term: the "AI Perpetual Motion Machine."

Deconstructing the Triangle: The Brain, the Muscle, and the Home

To understand how this "perpetual motion machine" works, we first need to understand the role each player performs.

1. OpenAI (The Brain): This is where it all begins. OpenAI's GPT series of models represents the most advanced and widely known AI brain in the world. They are the "demand creator." Each new model release sends shockwaves through the world with its unprecedented capabilities, thereby creating an insatiable hunger for AI computing power (compute). From enterprises to individual developers, everyone wants to leverage this powerful brain to build their own applications.
   

2. NVIDIA (The Muscle): If OpenAI's models are the intelligent soul, then NVIDIA's GPUs are the indispensable body. As the undisputed hegemon of the AI chip market, NVIDIA's high-end GPUs, like the H100 and B200 series, are the essential "muscle" for training and running these massive AI models. They are the "demand enabler." Without NVIDIA's chips, OpenAI's intelligence would remain confined to research papers.
   

3. Oracle (The Home): This is the most intriguing and pivotal part of the triangle. In the broader cloud computing market, Oracle's market share trails far behind Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure. But it did one thing exceptionally well: it went all-in on building cloud infrastructure (OCI) specifically designed for large-scale AI computation. It's as if, instead of building a general-purpose shopping mall, it constructed a "professional Formula 1 racetrack" with the most advanced track and pit-stop technology.
   

   • A Quick Technical Explanation: Training large AI models isn't just about throwing GPUs together. It requires extremely high-bandwidth, low-latency networking to link thousands of GPUs into a single, cohesive "supercomputer." This is known as a "cluster." Oracle bet heavily on providing best-in-class GPU clusters, which in turn attracted key workloads from top-tier AI companies like OpenAI. In this triangle, Oracle is the "demand supplier."

The "AI Perpetual Motion" Flywheel Effect

When the "Brain," the "Muscle," and the "Home" combine, a powerful flywheel effect is ignited:

Step 1: OpenAI releases a new, more capable AI model (e.g., GPT-5).

Step 2: To train and run this more powerful "brain," market demand for NVIDIA's top-of-the-line GPUs ("muscle") explodes.

Step 3: Cloud providers like Oracle, in order to meet the needs of customers like OpenAI, must purchase tens of thousands of NVIDIA GPUs and build them into high-performance "homes."

Step 4: The availability of this stable, high-performance infrastructure allows OpenAI to more effectively conduct R&D for its next generation of even larger models.

Step 5: When that next-gen model is released, it once again ignites an even greater demand for compute, and the cycle begins anew, spinning faster each time.

This is the reality of the "perpetual motion machine": a perfect, closed loop where model innovation drives hardware demand, which is then serviced by infrastructure investment that, in turn, fuels the next wave of model innovation.

The Investor's Take: Symbiotic Moats and Concentrated Risks

From an investment perspective, this strategic triangle offers a new analytical framework:

1. The Symbiotic Moat: The competitive advantages of these three companies are no longer isolated. OpenAI's model leadership reinforces the market's dependency on NVIDIA's chips. NVIDIA's technological barrier makes Oracle's high-end services a scarce and valuable resource. And Oracle's infrastructure provides the foundation for OpenAI's rapid iteration. An investment in any one of these companies is, to some extent, a bet on the success of the other two.

2. A Challenge to the Cloud Orthodoxy: Oracle's success has shattered the myth that the AI cloud market belongs exclusively to AWS and Azure. It proves that in the AI era, a specialized, "expert" player focused on a specific high-performance niche can effectively challenge the generalist giants. This offers a new lens for evaluating the cloud sector.

3. Concentration Risk: The powerful flywheel also implies significant, concentrated risk. The entire system's lifeblood is highly dependent on NVIDIA's ability to supply chips. Any disruption from supply chain issues, geopolitics, or a technological stumble could have a dramatic impact on the cycle. Furthermore, this de facto alliance could attract scrutiny from regulators over concerns of market monopolization.

A Final Thought

The ONO strategic triangle is a microcosm of the new business ecosystems emerging in the age of AI. It shows us that the strongest partnerships are born from irreplaceable, mutual value. They have signed no exclusive treaty, yet they are, in effect, jointly defining the market's trajectory and raising the barrier to entry to unprecedented heights.

This flywheel, powered by the "Brain," "Muscle," and "Home," is spinning with incredible angular velocity, relentlessly pulling resources, talent, and capital into its orbit.

This leaves all market participants with a critical question to ponder: In this flywheel, so tightly bound by demand, hardware, and infrastructure, what is the ultimate key to competition? Is it building a smarter 'brain,' more powerful 'muscle,' or a more efficient 'home'? And for the challengers left behind by this flywheel, where is the best entry point to break the cycle?